This website is dedicated to tracking real-time U.S. federal tax collections. We track income and payroll taxes that are withheld from paychecks, along with their relationship to the U.S. economy, especially wages and salaries. We also track individual refunds and payments during the tax filing season. We track other data releases, such as estimated payments of income taxes and different measures of aggregate wages in the economy.
The main data innovation is that we have developed a filtering technique in order to assess the extremely volatile daily tax withholding data. Properly assessed, withholding tax receipts are a rich source of economic data because they are available in almost real time: the largest firms remit their withholding to the U.S. Treasury Department the day after they pay their employees, and then the Treasury reports the total amount paid the day after that. In addition, total withholding taxes paid correlate well with different measures of economywide wages and salaries that are available later. And it is possible that the daily withholding data provide an early indication of movements in the components of economywide wages: employment, average hourly wages, and average hours worked per week. We provide those daily for the past month at the bottom of this page.
We are tracking, on a daily basis, total federal revenues for the 2024 fiscal year. Based on information from the Treasury Department, we can estimate how federal revenues for the current fiscal year-to-date compare to those for last year through the same point in the year. The estimated percentage increase or decrease in revenues for the fiscal year, compared to last year’s amounts, are provided in the chart below. The last data point illustrates the percentage increase or decrease in revenues for the fiscal year though the latest date available, compared to the amount for the same period last year.
Summary of Recent Developments
- Growth in federal income and payroll tax withholding has bounced around much more than usual in the past two months, we believe in large part from Hurricanes Milton and Helene, rather than from movements in the overall U.S. economy (see post of December 5). In November, federal tax withholding was an estimated 7.4 percent above the amount from November of a year ago, which is the highest monthly growth rate in more than two years. That follows October’s unusually low growth of 4.1 percent over last year’s amount. Just as withholding in October was likely held down by the hurricanes, we have probably seen some catching up of remittances in November.
- We tracked federal revenues on a daily basis through fiscal year 2024 (which ended on September 30). We measure the percentage change of revenues for the fiscal year-to-date compared to those for the same period of a year ago (see the chart above). Total revenues ended fiscal year 2024 up by about 11 percent compared to the 2023 amounts. (It was 10.8 percent by the final Treasury tabulations, 11.3 percent by our prior estimate based on the Daily Treasiry Statements through September 30.) An important part of the growth came from payments with individual income tax returns. We estimate that those amounts processed through May 30, by which time virtually all amounts from timely-filed returns had been counted, were about 14 percent above the prior year's amounts (see chart below and see the post of May 6 for the situation for receipts through May 2). Some of that strength in revenue with tax filings probably represented growth in nonwage income, and some represented more tax filers filing and paying without a delay, compared to the previous year when many taxpayers delayed filing as a result of natural disasters.
Federal withholding collections can be tracked over recent days, months, and years (see three charts below). The chart on withholding year-over-year growth in recent days is updated daily around 4:15pm ET, shortly after the 4:00pm release of the Daily Treasury Statement. Generally the withholding data for about half or more of the business days in a month can be filtered appropriately to generate estimates of withholding growth. (See the Updating Schedule page for when the next updated daily data point will be available.) Withholding in recent years, when adjusted for the effects of certain major tax law changes, has had a relatively close relationship with total U.S. wages and salaries as measured in the National Income and Product Accounts (see third chart below). Withholding generally has a comparable or closer relationship to the NIPA wage data than do the wage data releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that are available after the withholding data (see Usefulness of Tax Withholding in Estimating Wage Growth and Revisions). The withholding tax data can also often predict NIPA wage revisions.
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Statements.
For the chart on withholding in recent months, the adjusted measure removes the estimated effects of recent law changes that affect withholding but not wages. That allows the measure of withholding growth to provide a better gauge of growth in wages and salaries. The unadjusted measure does not remove those effects from law changes and instead measures the raw percentage change in withholding.
For the chart on withholding in recent days, the measure is adjusted to remove the estimated effects of recent law changes that affect withholding but not wages.
To see when the next daily observation will be available, click here. For downloadable data for chart of recent days, click here.
Sources: For withholding growth, author’s calculations based on data from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Statements, adjusted to remove the effects of estimated tax law changes for certain periods mainly before January 2019. Also, beginning at the end of March 2020, the data are adjusted for estimated effects of delays allowed for employers to remit their share of Social Security payroll taxes through calendar year 2020 and for the estimated effects of certain tax credits for the employer share of Social Security taxes. For wage and salary growth, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, Table 1.12, latest monthly release.
Note: The adjustments to withholding growth to reflect major tax law changes are the following: March 2009 to February 2010 (+2.8%); March 2010 to December 2010 (-0.5%); January 2011 to December 2011 (+3.4%); mid-January 2013 to mid-January 2014 (-8.0%); mid-January 2018 to mid-January 2019 (+7.0%); late March 2020 to December 2020 (+7.0%); January 2021 to late March 2021 (+1.4%), late March 2021 to December 2021 (-6% to -8%); January 2022 through September 2022 (about -1.5%), and zero adjustment after September 2022. The adjustments are phased in over several weeks to correspond with gradually-adjusting withholding. The adjustments are from the author’s calculations based on publicly-available information available from the Tax Policy Center, the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, and the Congressional Budget Office.
Email Booth Financial Consulting LLC at mark@boothconsult.com or mark@taxtracking.com
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