Withholding Growth Drops Very Sharply in April
Posted April 28, 2020 We estimate that tax withholding on a constant law basis fell by 5.4 percent in April compared to amounts from a year ago, a very large change from the 6 percent increase registered just two months ago in February. That almost 11.5 percentage point swing is consistent with about a 10.5 […]
Recovery Rebates: About Half of the Total Expected Amount Has Gone Out So Far
Posted April 24, 2020 I estimate that about $149 billion in rebates have been disbursed so far, just slightly over half of the total $292 billion expected by Congressional revenue estimators to eventually be disbursed. Almost all of the amount that has gone out has been directly deposited. I estimate that only about $3 billion […]
Tax Withholding Remittances are Dropping Precipitously
Posted on April 20 2020 Withholding tax remittances have dropped precipitously, consistent with the severe contraction of the economy resulting from the actions to contain COVID-19. We obtain measurements of withholding growth each day this week, and the first one today shows that withholding has taken another step down: withholding is down by almost 5 […]
Roughly $150 Billion of Rebates Have Gone Out to Taxpayers So Far This Week
Posted on April 16, 2020 The Treasury Department today reported that a large amount of recovery rebates, considered tax refunds, have gone out to taxpayers this week: roughly $150 billion. Those are amounts that were direct deposited into individual’s bank accounts. Some more direct deposits and all amounts in check form are still to come. […]
Withholding Growth Continues to Drop With More Likely to Come
Posted on April 14, 2020 Summary Tax withholding growth continues to drop. In the first half of April, we measure withholding growth, which is a proxy measure for economywide wages, to have fallen to just 1 percent year-over-year, a drop of about 5 percentage points in just a month and a half. A decline of […]
A Lot of Tax Refunds are Still Waiting to Be Claimed as Filing Season Activity Slows Markedly
Posted on April 10, 2020 The filing and processing of personal tax returns has slowed markedly in the past couple of weeks. That is an expected result of the nationwide efforts to contain the novel coronavirus and the IRS extension of the tax filing and associated payment deadline to July 15. But there are still […]
A Decline in Corporate Income Tax Receipts in March Was Presumably Just the Start of More Significant Declines
Posted on April 5, 2020 Summary Gross corporate income tax receipts fell by an estimated 9 percent in March (compared to last March’s amount), the first decline since August of last year. March is not one of the big four months for corporate income tax receipts, so we don’t normally put a lot of emphasis […]