Posted on April 18, 2025
On the taxtracking.com website, we are tracking total federal revenues on a daily basis through fiscal year 2025 (which began on October 1, 2024). We estimate that federal revenues for the full fiscal year to date (through April 16) are running about 5 percent above the amounts at the same point in fiscal year 2024 (see the first chart below). That growth rate has been boosted in the past few days by amounts collected with individual income tax returns for 2024 (due by April 15). Those amounts are running about 30 percent above the comparable amounts through the same period in fiscal year 2024 (through April 16, see second chart below). However, a substantial amount of such payments is usually counted after April 16 and into early May. Thus, the picture could change significantly over the next couple of weeks. Nonetheless, we have been expecting substantial growth in payments with individual income tax returns because of the boom in the stock market in 2024 and continued economic growth over the year. We expect that revenue-reducing effects from cuts in the IRS budget will be more significant, perhaps very much so, down the road.
