Tax Withholding in May: Wages and Salaries Moving Roughly Sideways
Posted May 29, 2020 Summary Tax withholding data for May suggest that economywide wages and salaries are moving roughly sideways compared to the amounts in April. That conclusion stems from our interpretation of both the raw withholding data and the data adjusted to remove the estimated effects of certain tax law changes. We are seeing […]
Forecasting the 2019 and 2020 Social Security Average Wage Index; Or, Why 2020 May Be an Unfortunate Year to Turn 60
Posted on May 26, 2020 Summary Now that we have estimates of 2019 wage growth from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, we can estimate that the 2019 average wage index used for Social Security purposes will grow in the vicinity of 3.5 percent for the year. The Social Security Administration should release […]
We Expect a Minimal Revision This Summer to Data on 2019 Wage Growth in the National Income and Product Accounts
Posted on May 22, 2020 Summary New BLS data on wages and salaries for 2019, which are the main data source used by BEA to update the National Income and Product Account estimates of wages and salaries, strongly suggest there will be only minimal revisions to the NIPA data for 2019 in the annual July […]
First Half of May Withholding: Overall Economy Now Moving Sideways?
Posted May 18, 2020 Summary We estimate that tax withholding fell by 4.7 percent, measured on a year-over-year basis, in the first half of May, compared with a 5.4 percent decline in the second half of April. That suggests that overall wage income has roughly stabilized. Withholding growth historically has tracked economywide wage growth. The […]
April Tax Receipts: Down Less Than We Expected, But the Reason Doesn’t Reduce the Federal Deficit
Posted on May 14, 2020 The Treasury Department released the Monthly Treasury Statement for April on Tuesday, showing that revenues for the month fell by 55 percent compared to the amount collected in April of last year. That’s quite a drop, but it’s a smaller decline than we expected last week (see post) of 70 […]
April Employment Report: Wage Growth Way Down, Especially for Lower-Wage Workers
Posted on May 10, 2020 Summary Friday’s BLS employment report for April not surprisingly showed a sharp drop in economywide wages, a steeper drop than indicated by the tax withholding data alone. The two measures tend to move together, though far from in lockstep. BLS measures of wage growth for different groups of workers indicate […]
Federal Excise Tax Receipts: Way Down in April
Posted on May 8, 2020 Excise tax receipts were down about 58 percent in the latest semimonthly payment period at the end of April (compared to the same period a year ago). Declines were due to legislation suspending taxes (aviation taxes, which were going to be very low anyway); administrative relief allowing delays in paying […]
April Tax Receipts: Down, Down, Down
Posted on May 4, 2020 We estimate that total federal tax receipts in April were down by 70 percent to 85 percent compared to amounts in April 2019, a drop so large that it would shift receipts for the current fiscal year (which started in October) from a gain of 6 percent through March to […]