Withholding Growth Picks Up in October
Posted on October 29, 2020 By our measure, income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks moved up significantly in October. We estimate that tax withholding was 0.3 percent above the amounts from October of a year ago, measured to remove the estimated effects of federal tax law changes enacted since March and to standardize […]
Fiscal Stimulus from the Extra Federal Unemployment Benefits Has Largely Disappeared
Posted on October 21, 2020 I have two points and two charts about how the extra federal unemployment benefits have lost most of their effect of stimulating the economy by providing funds to help tide unemployed workers over until the economy recovers. You may not be surprised, but the extra federal unemployment benefits provided by […]
Total Federal Revenues Fell by About 1 Percent in Fiscal Year 2020, and Look to Have Been Roughly Stable as a Percent of GDP
Posted October 18, 2020 Summary Federal revenues declined by 1 percent in the just-concluded 2020 fiscal year, and remained roughly stable as a share of GDP. Revenues typically fall sharply relative to GDP in recessions, and often with much of the effect hitting with a lag. Revenues remained stable relative to GDP in 2020 in […]
Tax Withholding Growth Continued to Improve in the First Part of October
Posted on October 13, 2020 There has been a slow improvement in tax withholding since the worst of the downturn in April and May, and the improvement has continued in the first part of October. We measure that withholding was down by about 1 percent in the first part of October through Friday the 9th, […]
Economywide Wages and Salaries Improved Further in September
Posted on October 4, 2020 I have just a paragraph and a chart about this past Friday’s release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) about the September employment situation. Economywide wages and salaries in the private sector continued to improve in September, but they still have a long ways to go to get back […]
We Estimate Federal Revenues for All of Fiscal Year 2020 Were Down by 1.2 Percent, but Official Tabulations Are to Be Released in Mid-October
Posted on October 1, 2020 The Treasury Department just released the final Daily Treasury Statement for September and hence for fiscal year 2020. By my estimate, total federal revenues for FY 2020 were down by 1.2 percent. That consists of revenues being up by about 6 percent in the first half of the year from […]