Growth in Federal Tax Withholding in May Suggests That the Overall Economy Continues to Grow
Posted on Thursday, June 4, 2026 In May, we observed an increase in growth of federal tax withholding–that is, the overall amounts of income and payroll taxes that employers withhold from workers’ paychecks and remit to the Treasury Department as soon as the day after the workers are paid. We estimate that withholding growth was […]
April Payments with Filings of Individual Income Tax Returns Were About the Same as Last Year’s Amounts, Contributing to a Slowing in Overall Federal Revenue Growth This Fiscal Year
Posted on May 7, 2026 I don’t think it’s a big surprise, but payments of individual income taxes with federal tax return filings look to be ending the filing season very close to the amounts from 2025 (see the chart below). We had expected single digit growth in payments with tax returns, so actual growth […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Slowed Some in April to 4 Percent Year-Over-Year
Posted on May 5, 2026 We expect to comment later this week on April/early May payments with individual income tax return filings, but first we will comment on tax withholding payments. In April, we observed some slippage in growth of federal tax withholding–that is, the amounts of income and payroll taxes that employers withhold from […]
It’s Tax Day Today: What Do We Expect for Payments with Federal Tax Returns and When Will We Find Out the Result?
Posted on April 15, 2026 Today is the due date for filing federal income tax returns for the 2025 tax year. Payments with tax return filings, along with much smaller amounts paid as estimated tax for the first quarter of 2026, are thus due today. As usual at this point in the filing season, it […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Has Rebounded in the Past Three Months. The Effects of Year-End Bonuses and Some Improving Labor Market Conditions?
Posted on April 2, 2026 Now that the March data are in, we have observed three consecutive months of rebounding growth in federal tax withholding–which is the economywide amount of income and payroll taxes that employers withhold from workers’ paychecks and remit to the Treasury Department as soon as the day after the workers are […]
Growth in Federal Withholding Taxes Fell in February, Following a One-Month Jump in January That Was Fueled, We Believe, by Wall Street Bonuses
Posted on March 4, 2026 In February we observed growth of federal income and payroll tax withholding fall from the amount estimated for January, when we believe withholding was temporarily boosted by robust year-end bonuses on Wall Street. Nonetheless, withholding growth in February was a bit above the rates from September to December of last […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Rebounded in January, Which We Attribute Largely to Robust Year-End Bonuses on Wall Street
Posted on February 2, 2026 A quick take here: In January, we observed a rebound in growth of federal tax withholding–the amounts of income and payroll taxes that employers withhold from workers’ paychecks and remit to the Treasury Department as soon as the day after the workers are paid. Specifically, we estimate that tax withholding […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Has Slowed in the Past Four Months, Especially So in December
Posted on January 7, 2026 In December, we observed the fourth consecutive month with declining growth in federal tax withholding–amounts of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks by employers and remitted to the Treasury Department as soon as the day after the workers were paid. Specifically, we estimate that tax withholding grew by […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Has Slowed in the Past Three Months
Posted on December 2, 2025 We now have three consecutive months–September through November–in which we estimate that growth in federal tax withholding was in the range of 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent (compared to year-ago amounts), slower than the range of 5 percent to 7 percent that withholding has grown in most of the past […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding in September and October Was at the Lowest 2-Month Average Since the First Part of 2023
Posted on November 6, 2025 We have now observed two consecutive months with significantly reduced growth in federal tax withholding. Such withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted by employers as quickly as the next day to the U.S. Treasury–grew by an estimated 3.8 percent in October following […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Dropped in September
Posted on October 1, 2025 After three months of healthy growth in federal tax withholding, we estimate that growth fell in September. We estimate that federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted by employers as quickly as the next day to the U.S. Treasury Department–grew by […]
Corporate Income Tax Payments Fell Substantially in September and Less So But Still Significantly in June: The Effects of Tax Law Changes and Perhaps a Smaller Amount from Tariffs and an Economic Slowdown?
Posted on September 23, 2025 We have in the books the large bulk of corporations’ September payments of income taxes, the third quarterly payment for most corporations, and they show a big drop. We won’t be sure of the actual amount until all payments are in for September, but they look to be over 40 […]
Federal Tax Withholding Continued at a Healthy Pace for the Third Consecutive Month in August
Posted on September 4, 2025 In trying to identify whether the time is right to lower short-term interest rates, the Federal Reserve continues to assess data on the state of the U.S. economy, in particular the labor market and inflation. Lots of measures exist to gauge the labor market. We are seeing federal tax withholding, […]
U.S. Customs Duties in August Continued to Soar
Posted on August 27, 2025 It is not a surprise that U.S. customs duties continued to soar in August, and even a bit higher than in June and July, when customs duties were already at record high levels. We estimate customs duties for August at about $31 billion, much higher than the $7 billion per […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth in July Remained Relatively Stable at a Healthy Pace
Posted on July 30, 2025 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted as quickly as the next day to the U.S. Treasury Department–grew by 6.4 percent in July compared to the amount from July of a year ago (see chart below). That is […]
A Perspective on the Recent Soaring Amount of Customs Duties–You Know, From Tariffs
Posted on July 28, 2025 Summary The Administration’s new tariffs are a complicated, dizzying array of general, country-specific, and product-specific duties that are often changing or being delayed. I won’t go into the different rates, and there are good tariff trackers available, such as from the Tax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab. What is not […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Rebounded in June
Posted on July 2, 2025 Based on our assessment of the U.S. Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Statements, U.S. federal tax withholding rebounded in June after two months with slower growth. We estimate that federal tax withholding-–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted by firms as quickly as the […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Slowed in April and May
Posted on June 3, 2025 For the second consecutive month in May, U.S. federal tax withholding grew much more slowly than its monthly growth from November through March, and even a bit more slowly than in most months from mid-2023 to late 2024. Specifically, we estimate that federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and […]
Strong Federal Tax Collections from Individual Income Tax Return Filings
Posted on May 6, 2025 Large increases in federal collections from individual income tax return filings have boosted overall revenue growth. It appears that the IRS has completed most all of the counting of amounts paid with timely-filed tax returns for tax year 2024–mostly due by April 15, or by May 1 for taxpayers in […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Slowed in April
Posted on April 30, 2025 With the IRS’s counting of payments with income tax return filings still in the final stages, we turn our attention to federal income and payroll tax withholding. We estimate that year-over-year growth in such tax withholding slowed significantly in April, to 4.6 percent from an average of 7.3 percent over […]
High Growth in Recent Days of Payments with Income Tax Return Filings, Partway Through the Counting, Has Boosted Overall Revenue Growth for the Fiscal Year
Posted on April 18, 2025 On the taxtracking.com website, we are tracking total federal revenues on a daily basis through fiscal year 2025 (which began on October 1, 2024). We estimate that federal revenues for the full fiscal year to date (through April 16) are running about 5 percent above the amounts at the same […]
We See No Signs of Economic Slowdown from Tax Withholding Data Through March
Posted on April 3, 2025 U.S. federal tax withholding in March continued to grow at a solid rate. We estimate that federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from employees’ paychecks and remitted by firms as quickly as the next day to the U.S. Treasury Department–grew by 7.5 percent in March […]
Tracking Total Federal Revenues: Up By About 4 Percent Through The First Half of Fiscal Year 2025, With Higher Growth Expected in the Second Half
Posted on April 2, 2025 We have reached the halfway point in the 2025 federal fiscal year, and we are coming up closer to the April 15 income tax filing deadline. Through the end of March, we estimate that total federal revenues were about 4 percent higher than through the same point in fiscal year […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Slowed in February and Was Back Within the Range of Most of the Past Two Years
Posted on March 4, 2025 We estimate that growth in federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from employees’ paychecks and remitted by firms as quickly as the next day to the U.S. Treasury Department–slowed in February. Based on data released daily by the U.S. Treasury, we estimate that economywide withholding […]
Individual Quarterly Estimated Payments in January Rose by a Healthy 8 Percent, and We Expect Robust Growth in Final Payments with Tax Returns in April
Posted on February 12, 2025 The IRS has completed tabulating the amounts of individuals’ January quarterly payments of estimated federal income taxes, the last quarterly payment for the 2024 tax year. Based on information from the U.S. Treasury’s Daily Treasury Statement, we estimate that those payments rose by about 8 percent above the amounts from […]