High Year-End Bonuses Continued to Boost Federal Tax Withholding in January
Posted on February 2, 2025 Federal tax withholding in the months of December and January are often volatile because of the effects of year-end bonuses, and we believe that high growth in year-end bonuses on Wall Street and elsewhere in the past two months have boosted tax withholding. We estimate that federal tax withholding–the combined […]
We Believe That High Year-End Bonuses May Have Boosted Federal Tax Withholding Growth in December
Posted on January 6, 2025 Growth in federal tax withholding remained relatively high in December, quite possibly the result of large increases in year-end bonuses in the financial industry. Tax withholding represents the combined amount of income and payroll taxes that are withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted by firms as quickly as the next […]
Federal Tax Withholding Payments Rose Sharply in November, But Probably Because of Payments Delayed by the Effects of Hurricanes and Because of the Late Thanksgiving
Posted on December 5, 2024 Growth in federal income and payroll tax withholding has bounced around much more than usual in the past two months, we believe in large part as a result of Hurricanes Milton and Helene, rather than from movements in the overall U.S. economy. In November, federal tax withholding–the combined amount of […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Slowed Significantly in October, With Effects From Hurricanes Milton and Helene
Posted on October 30, 2024 We estimate that growth in federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted as quickly as the next day to the U.S. Treasury Department–slowed significantly in October. Based on data released daily by the U.S. Treasury, we estimate that withholding in October […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Moved Up in September
Posted on October 3, 2024 Growth in federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted by the firms as soon as the next day to the U.S. Treasury Department–moved up in September. Based on data released daily by the U.S. Treasury, we estimate that the amount of […]
Tax Withholding Growth Ticked up in August, but Was Near the Bottom of its Range Over Most of the Past Year
Posted on September 3, 2024 Growth in federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury Department–ticked up in August. Based on data released daily by the U.S. Treasury, we estimate that the amount of withholding in August was 5.2 percent above the […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Slipped Some in July, to Slightly Below the Band It Has Fluctuated Within for Most of the Past Year
Posted on August 1, 2024 Growth in federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–slipped some in July. Based on data released daily by the U.S. Treasury Department, we estimate that the amount of withholding in July was 4.8 percent above the […]
Steady-as-We-Go Federal Tax Withholding in June: Growth Continues Within its Narrow Band of Most of the Past Year
Posted on July 3, 2024 Federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–continued to increase at a solid, healthy pace in June. Based on data released daily by the U.S. Treasury Department, we estimate that the amount of withholding in June was […]
Growth in Federal Income Tax Withholding Remained Solid in May–Now a Full Year with Roughly Stable Monthly Growth
Posted on June 3, 2024 Federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily by employers to the U.S. Treasury–continued to increase at a solid, healthy pace in May. Over almost each month of the past year, withholding has grown within a relatively narrow band of 5 […]
Payments with Federal Income Tax Return Filings Have Grown Significantly This Filing Season
Posted on May 6, 2024 Summary Although the IRS’s final count of income tax payments with timely-filed tax returns is not quite complete, it is clear that payments are up significantly over last year’s pace: higher by about 14 percent, with the potential for it being a little higher than that when all the counting […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Ticked Up in April, Probably a Temporary Artifact of a Move Down Last April
Posted on Tuesday April 30, 2024 Federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily by employers to the U.S. Treasury–increased by an estimated 7.0 percent in April (compared to the amount in April 2023). That is a tick upwards from growth in recent months, to the […]
The IRS is Tabulating the Payments with Federal Income Tax Return Filings: The Early Indications
Posted on April 18, 2024 The due date to file federal income tax returns was Monday of this week for most individuals, and the IRS is busy tabulating the amounts paid with those returns, both from electronic payments and good old-fashioned checks (and, yes, from the multiple other available methods). It typically takes the IRS […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Remained Solid in March
Posted on April 2, 2024 Federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily by employers to the U.S. Treasury–continued to increase at a solid, healthy pace in March. We estimate that economywide withholding grew by 5.8 percent in March (compared to the amount in March 2023), […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Rebounded in February Back to Within its Range from May to December 2023
Posted on March 5, 2024 Federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury Department–rebounded in February after a one-month dip (see the chart below). Specifically, we estimate that withholding grew by 6.0 percent in February (compared to the amount from February 2023), in […]
Taxpayers’ Quarterly Estimated Payments of Federal Income Taxes Fell Slightly in January
Posted on February 7, 2024 I’m not sure precisely what it portends, but we estimate that taxpayers’ final quarterly estimated payments of federal income taxes for tax year 2023 dropped in January by 2.5 percent compared to the amount paid in January 2023; we base that on daily tax receipts reported by the U.S. Treasury […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Slowed Significantly in January
Posted on January 30, 2024 Federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–is always hard to interpret in January, being affected by year-end bonuses on Wall Street and elsewhere, along with multiple holidays. Nonetheless, we estimate that withholding growth slowed significantly this January, when […]
Tax Withholding Growth in December Remained Near the Average Amount Since May
Posted on January 3, 2024 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the amounts of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury Department–grew by 6.1 percent in December after we remove the estimated effects of law changes. That growth is relative to the amounts of withholding in December 2022, […]
Withholding Growth in November Returned to About the Average From May Through September, and It Remained Roughly in Line With Economywide Wage and Salary Growth
Posted on December 6, 2023 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 4.8 percent in November (compared to the amount from November of a year ago). After temporarily increasing by 6.7 percent in October, growth in November represents […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Moved up Some in October, Possibly Resulting from Disaster-Related Payment Delays
Posted on November 2, 2023 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 6.7 percent in October (compared to the amounts from October 2022). That is a step-up from the growth of between 5.1 percent and 5.6 percent recorded […]
Income Tax Payments are Booming This October Presumably Because of Payments Deferred by Recent Natural Disasters
Posted on October 23, 2023 When I worked in the federal government tracking and forecasting federal tax collections, we would keep track of the IRS-granted tax-filing and payment delays allowed for taxpayers in areas of the country affected by natural disasters. Those payment delays never moved the overall revenue needle much, but that appears to […]
Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Remained Relatively Stable in September, and the Main Measure of Economywide Wage Growth for 2022 Was Revised Down
Posted on October 3, 2023 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 5.6 percent in September (compared to the amounts from September 2022). That is the fifth consecutive month in which withholding growth was between 5.1 percent and […]
Annual Growth in Federal Tax Withholding in August Continued in a Narrow Band of Around 5 Percent to 5-1/2 Percent for the Fourth Consecutive Month
Posted on August 31, 2023 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 5.4 percent in August (compared to the amounts from August 2022). That is the fourth consecutive month with withholding growth of between 5.1 percent and 5.6 […]
Annual Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Remained A Little Above 5 Percent in July for the Third Consecutive Month
Posted on August 2, 2023 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from employees’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 5.1 percent in July (compared to the amounts from July of a year ago). That is very close to the growth of 5.3 percent recorded in […]
Withholding Growth in June Continued at a Relatively Brisk Pace for the Second Consecutive Month
Posted on July 3, 2023 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from employees’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 5.3 percent in June (compared to the amounts from June of a year ago). That is about the same as the 5.6 percent growth in May, […]
Tax Withholding Growth Moves Up in May, and Wage Growth Through April is Revised Down
Posted on May 31, 2023 We estimate that federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from employees’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 5.6 percent in May (compared to the amounts from May of a year ago). That is the highest rate of growth since October 2022, and is […]