Tax Payments with Individual Income Tax Return Filings Are Down Sharply This Year
Posted on May 5, 2023 We can certainly say that tax payments with individual income tax return filings have dropped sharply this year–down by about 34 percent by our tally of the daily tax receipts through the latest amounts released for activity on May 3 (see chart below). And that percentage decline looks like it […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Slowed in April
Posted on May 1, 2023 Amidst all the interest in the amounts of federal taxes paid with income tax return filings, we can’t forget about income and payroll taxes withheld from worker’s paychecks and remitted to the Treasury. We estimate that growth in withheld taxes slowed in April, measured to remove the estimated effects of […]
Payments With Individual Income Tax Return Filings Are Down Sharply Compared to 2022 Amounts at This Same Point in the Processing. More Payments Remain to Be Counted, but it is Hard to See the Overall Decline Reversing Significantly.
Posted on April 24, 2023 Federal tax payments with individual income tax return filings are running well behind the 2022 pace at this same point in the processing. By our tally, payments are lower by about one-third (see the first chart below) compared to the 2022 pace. Normally at this point there is not an […]
The Early Counted Payments With Income Tax Returns Look Very Light, but the IRS Has Much More Counting to Do
Posted on April 19, 2023 Federal tax day was yesterday. The amount of money collected and reported by the IRS from individual income tax return filings is running well behind last year’s pace at this same point in the process. We cannot draw firm conclusions because normally only about one-third to one-half of the total […]
Tracking the Amount of Payments Made with Federal Tax Return Filings: The Process Begins
Posted on April 11, 2023 Payments by individuals with their federal income tax return filings are due to the IRS by Tuesday, April 18–a week from today, when the tax returns are also due. It is still way too early in the process to make any assessments of the amounts paid compared to prior years. […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Remained Stable in March
Posted on April 3, 2023 We estimate that growth in federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from employees’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury Department–grew by 3.8 percent in March (compared to the amounts from March of a year ago). That is just about the same as the 3.9 […]
Federal Tax Withholding Rebounded Further in February
Posted on March 2, 2023 We estimate that growth in federal tax withholding–amounts of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 3.9 percent in February compared to the amount from February of a year ago (see chart below). That is the same growth recorded in November of […]
Daily Tracking of Federal Tax Revenues Through Fiscal Year 2023: Down About 3 Percent Through February 22 Compared to the Same Period Last Year
Posted on February 24, 2023 We have begun a daily tracking of total federal revenues for fiscal year 2023, comparing the amounts of revenue for the fiscal-year-to-date to amounts through the same period last year. Through Wednesday, February 21, we estimate that total federal revenues for the fiscal year (which started on October 1, 2022) […]
A Decline in the Amount of Quarterly Estimated Payments in January May Indicate a Significant Drop to Come in Final Payments with Federal Tax Returns This Filing Season
Posted on February 8, 2023 Payments made by individuals when filing tax returns jumped sharply in each of the past two years, but such payments may fall, perhaps significantly, this tax season. A possible harbinger is a decline in individuals’ quarterly estimated payments in January. Based on amounts reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, we […]
Federal Tax Withholding Continued to Grow at a Low Rate in January, as in December, Though It Is Difficult to Interpret the Data for Those Two Months
Posted on January 31, 2023 Growth in federal withheld tax payments remained low in January, according to our estimates that adjust the reported amount of withholding for tax law changes and differences in the calendar across months. We estimate that tax withholding grew by 3.4 percent in January (compared to the amounts from January of […]
Tax Withholding Growth Slows Further in December, But Year-End Bonuses and Law Changes Make the Measurement Very Uncertain
Posted on January 3, 2023 We estimate that growth in federal tax withholding–amounts of federal income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted by employers to the U.S. Treasury–fell further in December, registering 1.9 percent growth (compared to amounts from December of a year-ago). That represents a continuation of a gradual diminishing of […]
The End of the Deferral Period for Certain Payroll Tax Remittances Boosts Withholding For the Second Consecutive December
Posted on December 27, 2022 We can observe that daily remittances to the U.S. Treasury made by employers for the federal income and payroll taxes that they withhold from their employees’ paychecks (referred to as withholding) are being significantly affected in December by previously-enacted law changes. For the second consecutive December, federal withholding amounts have […]
Growth in Quarterly Estimated Payments by Corporations Slowed in December
Posted on December 22, 2022 The mid-December quarterly estimated payment of federal income taxes by corporations was due to the IRS by December 15, and by this point in the month the IRS has normally received about 90 percent of the month’s total corporate tax payments. So, we can estimate that such tax payments for […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Moved Back Down in November, Suggesting Weakening Economywide Wage Growth
Posted on November 29, 2022 We estimate that growth in federal tax withholding–amounts of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted to the U.S. Treasury–grew by 3.9 percent in November compared to the amount from November of a year ago (see chart below). Withholding amounts tend to track overall wages and salaries […]
New Data on Economywide Wages and Salaries for 2022Q2 Indicate a Possible Downward Revision to the Corresponding Data in the National Income and Product Accounts in Next Week’s Release
Posted on November 22, 2022 Happy Thanksgiving Week to you. Every three months the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases data on employment and wages from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the quarter ending about five months earlier, so definitely backward looking. Today BLS released the partial QCEW data for the […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Moved Up in October Back Closer to its May-August Amounts, But Remains Below Direct Measures of Economywide Wage Growth
Posted on November 2, 2022 We estimate that growth in federal tax withholding–amounts of federal income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted by employers to the U.S. Treasury–moved up in October, registering 5.7 percent growth (compared to amounts from October of a year ago, measuring so-called year-over-year growth). Withholding growth returned close […]
Federal Revenues End Fiscal Year 2022 at a Near Record Percentage of GDP, But Much of the Year’s Revenue Gain Reflects Past Economic Activity
Posted on October 7, 2022 The 2022 federal fiscal year ended a week ago, and it is very clear that revenues boomed in the fiscal year, to just about $4.9 trillion we estimate, or about a 21 percent increase over the 2021 amounts. Revenues rose to an estimated 19.6 percent of the size of the […]
Federal Tax Withholding Growth Dropped Further in September and Remains Well Below Direct Measures of Economywide Wage Growth
Posted on October 3, 2022 We measure that growth of federal tax withholding–the amount of federal income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted to the U.S. Treasury Department–declined further in September, continuing a general move down in growth that began in May . We estimate that tax withholding grew by 3.1 percent […]
Quarterly Estimated Tax Payments by Corporations Grew Strongly in Mid-September
Posted on September 20, 2022 With the mid-September corporate income tax payments now in the books, and only relatively small amounts normally left to be counted over the rest of the month, we estimate that federal corporate tax payments for all of September will total roughly $111 billion, an increase of about 25 percent over […]
With About One Month to Go, We See Total Federal Revenues Ending the 2022 Fiscal Year Higher by about 20 Percent over the 2021 Amounts, to a Near Record Amount Relative to the Size of the Economy
Posted on Tuesday, September 6, 2022 Federal revenues have boomed in fiscal year 2022, despite an economic slowdown that has seen real GDP growth turn slightly negative in the first and second quarters of this calendar year. Receipts in September, the final month of the fiscal year, include the third quarterly estimated payments for tax […]
Withholding Growth Drops in August and Remains Well Below Measures of Economywide Wage Growth from the National Income Accounts and the Monthly Establishment Survey
Posted on August 31, 2022 In August we observed a decline in the growth of federal tax withholding–the amount of federal income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted to the U.S. Treasury Department. We estimate that tax withholding grew by 4.9 percent in August (compared to the amounts from August of a […]
Tax Withholding Continued to Grow at a Relatively Slow Pace in July
Posted on July 29, 2022 We’ve now had three consecutive months with relatively slow growth in federal tax withholding–the amount of federal income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted to the U.S. Treasury Department. We estimate that tax withholding grew by 5.7 percent in July (compared to the amounts from July of […]
Individual Quarterly Estimated Tax Payments in June Fell Compared to Those in January and Last June
Posted on July 5, 2022 Well, we’ve previously observed a slowdown over the past two months in income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted to the U.S. Treasury, and then quarterly estimated income tax payments by corporations in June, and now we can add to the list quarterly estimated payments of individuals […]
Growth in Withheld Tax Payments in June Was Relatively Low for the Second Consecutive Month
Posted on July 1, 2022 We’ve now had two consecutive months with much slower growth in the amount of federal income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted to the U.S. Treasury Department. Those amounts–what we call tax withholding–grew by an estimated 5.8 percent in June above the amounts from June of a […]
Corporate Income Tax Receipts in June: Signs of a Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth
Posted on June 23, 2022 In mid-June most firms made their second quarterly estimated payment of income taxes for the 2022 tax year, and the overall amounts paid to the Treasury Department indicate a slowing in recent months in the growth of corporate profits, the main driver of such tax payments. On the one hand, […]