Full 2020Q2 Wage Data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: A Bit Stronger Than We Expected
Posted on December 3, 2020 Sometimes it’s perilous to project National Income and Product Account (NIPA) wage revisions based on the incomplete wage data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). And when the economy is in major upheaval is one of those times. Two weeks ago we posted about the incomplete QCEW […]
Withholding Growth in November: Down Slightly but We Shouldn’t Read Too Much into That
Posted on November 30, 2020 We measure that growth in economywide income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks slowed just slightly in November compared to October’s rate of growth. Withholding registered a small 0.3 percent increase in October, relative to the amount in October of 2019, but then fell by 0.1 percent in November […]
Economywide Wage Data for 2020Q2 from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: Inconclusive But Maybe Indicating a Slight Downward NIPA Revision?
Posted on November 22, 2020 Every three months the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases quarterly data on employment and wages for the quarter ending about five months before, so a bit of a lag. We pay attention to those data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) both because they are […]
Excise Tax Collections Are Back Below Year-Ago Amounts
Posted on November 14, 2020 Excise tax collections have been down and up since the pandemic hit, mainly down (see chart below). The movements have resulted from legislative and administrative changes, along with the economic contraction. Collections have moved back down in the past month following a temporary boost from payments of deferred alcohol and […]
Economywide Wages and Salaries Continued to Improve in October
Posted on November 7, 2020 If you’re interested in some non-election information, I invite you to read on. According to data released yesterday by the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), economywide wages and salaries continued to improve in October, albeit slowly. Total private sector wages and salaries were down by 0.9 percent […]
Withholding Growth Picks Up in October
Posted on October 29, 2020 By our measure, income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks moved up significantly in October. We estimate that tax withholding was 0.3 percent above the amounts from October of a year ago, measured to remove the estimated effects of federal tax law changes enacted since March and to standardize […]
Fiscal Stimulus from the Extra Federal Unemployment Benefits Has Largely Disappeared
Posted on October 21, 2020 I have two points and two charts about how the extra federal unemployment benefits have lost most of their effect of stimulating the economy by providing funds to help tide unemployed workers over until the economy recovers. You may not be surprised, but the extra federal unemployment benefits provided by […]
Total Federal Revenues Fell by About 1 Percent in Fiscal Year 2020, and Look to Have Been Roughly Stable as a Percent of GDP
Posted October 18, 2020 Summary Federal revenues declined by 1 percent in the just-concluded 2020 fiscal year, and remained roughly stable as a share of GDP. Revenues typically fall sharply relative to GDP in recessions, and often with much of the effect hitting with a lag. Revenues remained stable relative to GDP in 2020 in […]
Tax Withholding Growth Continued to Improve in the First Part of October
Posted on October 13, 2020 There has been a slow improvement in tax withholding since the worst of the downturn in April and May, and the improvement has continued in the first part of October. We measure that withholding was down by about 1 percent in the first part of October through Friday the 9th, […]
Economywide Wages and Salaries Improved Further in September
Posted on October 4, 2020 I have just a paragraph and a chart about this past Friday’s release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) about the September employment situation. Economywide wages and salaries in the private sector continued to improve in September, but they still have a long ways to go to get back […]
We Estimate Federal Revenues for All of Fiscal Year 2020 Were Down by 1.2 Percent, but Official Tabulations Are to Be Released in Mid-October
Posted on October 1, 2020 The Treasury Department just released the final Daily Treasury Statement for September and hence for fiscal year 2020. By my estimate, total federal revenues for FY 2020 were down by 1.2 percent. That consists of revenues being up by about 6 percent in the first half of the year from […]
Tax Withholding Growth Improves Just Slightly in September
Posted on September 29, 2020 Federal tax withholding growth by our measure continued to improve in September, but at a much slower pace than in the prior three months. For September, we estimate that economywide withholding, on a basis that removes the estimated effects of federal tax law changes enacted since March, was 2.0 percent […]
Nonwithheld Individual Income Tax Payments Look to Be Moving Back up in September
Posted on September 27, 2020 Well, it’s not by a lot, but based on the Treasury Department’s daily tax data through September 24, we estimate that nonwithheld individual income tax payments in September have increased compared to those in September of a year ago. Those payments, which largely represent the third quarterly estimated payments by […]
Federal Revenues Down by 2 Percent for the Fiscal Year Through September 17. Down by 1 or 2 Percent for the Full Fiscal Year?
Posted on September 20, 2020 Summary We estimate that total federal revenues for the fiscal year-to-date, through September 17, are down by about 2 percent compared to last year’s amounts at the same point. With only a week and a half to go in the fiscal year, our current point estimate for the full year […]
Employee Payroll Tax Deferral: Potential Effects on Withholding
Posted on September 13, 2020 Well, I feel like we’ve been here before. After employers were allowed back in late March to start deferring payment of their share of the Social Security payroll tax, now employees are allowed to do the same–though it will largely be employers who make the decision. The President’s executive action […]
Unemployment Benefit Payments Are Moving Up Again, But the Financing Source of the Increase is Very Limited
Posted on September 8, 2020 I have three points and three charts about recent payments of unemployment benefits: Total federal plus state unemployment benefit payments are moving up again after dropping sharply in the first part of August, following expiration of the extra $600 per week federal benefit (see first chart below). Benefits are moving […]
Economywide Wages and Employment Continued to Improve in August, But Still Have a Long Way to Go to Get Back to Pre-Pandemic Amounts
Posted on September 5, 2020 Here are two paragraphs and two exhibits about yesterday’s release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of its monthly labor market report for August. The headline was the continued improvement in employment in August, as about half of the total drop in employment at the worst of the downturn […]
Withholding Growth Continued to Improve in August
Posted on August 30, 2020 Federal revenues from withholding of income and payroll taxes continued to improve in August, as the decline on a year-over-year basis (that is, comparing the amounts to those from the same month of a year ago) was an estimated 2.4 percent, compared to a decline of 3.7 percent in July […]
Two Charts Showing Nationwide Unemployment Benefit Payments Are Very Slowly Starting To Move Back Up Again
Posted on August 27, 2020 About a month after the expiration of the extra $600 weekly federal unemployment benefit, we have seen total benefits paid start to move back up again. A five-day moving average of the total national amount of payments of state and federal unemployment benefits had reached about $5 billion per day […]
Revenues Down By 2 Percent for the Fiscal Year Through August 20. Down 2 to 3 Percent for the Full Fiscal Year?
Posted on August 23, 2020 Summary We estimate that total federal revenues for the fiscal year-to-date, through August 20, are down by about 2 percent compared to last year’s amounts at this same point. Based on recent trends, we extrapolate that weakness in revenues in the remaining 5-1/2 weeks of the fiscal year will push […]
Retroactive Business Provisions in the CARES Act: Should We Really See Lots of Refunds Before the Fiscal Year Ends?
Posted on August 18, 2020 Summary The Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that two business provisions of the CARES Act allowing for retroactive use of losses would reduce revenues by a combined $155 billion in fiscal year 2020. The timing of the revenue effects from the provisions is rather complicated, but I’m skeptical that we’ll […]
Withholding Remittances Anomalously Jumped in Mid-July and Have Moved Back Down…Mostly
Posted on August 14, 2020 We posted last month about the anomalous surge in withholding tax remittances in mid-July, timed just as a large amount of delayed income tax payments were being remitted to the Treasury. We thought it quite possible that taxpayers didn’t correctly identify which taxes were being paid and that the Treasury […]
Daily Treasury Department Data Show the Decline Underway in Unemployment Insurance Benefit Payments
Posted on Monday, August 10, 2020 More than a week or two after the expiration of the extra $600 weekly federal unemployment insurance benefit that was enacted in March in the CARES Act, we can see the clear drop-off in benefit payments. The Treasury Department releases daily the nationwide amount of combined state and federal […]
Total Receipts Rebounded in July, But Remain Below Year-Ago Amounts for the Fiscal Year to Date
August 3, 2020 Federal tax receipts for July are now in the books, and the IRS has completed counting all the money deposited with tax returns filed by this year’s extended July 15 deadline. I calculate that total receipts from all sources for this fiscal year to date, thus from October 2019 through July 2020, […]
NIPA Annual Revisions are Released: Minimal Wage and Salary Revisions, Big Profit Revisions
Posted on August 1, 2020 On Thursday of this past week the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of economic activity for the second quarter of this year, garnering big headlines, but they also released their lesser appreciated annual revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) that go back several […]